Throwback: Glass Houses
§AFA Systems
In August of 2020, I started my website: mylesmarino.com. The very first post(now deleted), was my thoughts on AFA Protective Systems’ business model and the challenges they face.
For a bit of background: AFA Protective Systems was founded in 1848, and was a telegraph operator until 1875, when they started to transmit fire alarm signals. Since then, they have undergone many mergers and acquisitions, creating a systems monitoring business (think fire alarms, security systems, etc).
I was critical of management, as I thought they were mis-managing what could have been a fantastic business. They seemed to perpetually under-earn, and continuously perused small municipal contracts instead of the more profitable commercial contracts (like the JFK airport). A lot of the problems I identified were, in my view, only there because of management’s failures.
So why write about this now? At the time I wrote up my criticisms (August 2020), the stock was at $190/share. On September 3rd, 2021, the stock closed at $720/share (+279%) , on the announcement that CTSI will acquire AFA Protective Systems for $743.50/share. Maybe I should keep my mouth shut next time and let management do what they are good at!
§Original document
Two Thoughts:
§Universally Remembered
Here is a depressing thought: none of us reading (or writing) this will be remembered in the year 4021.
However, some people born in the last 200 years will be remembered 2000 years from now. Who, from 1821 onward, will be remembered 2000 years from now?
For reference, here are some people who lived ~2000 years ago who are universally remembered:
Buddha (623 BC)
Confucius (551 BC)
Socrates (470 BC)
Plato (428 BC)
Aristotle (384 BC)
Alexander the Great (356 BC)
Julius Caesar (born 100 BC)
Jesus (4 BC)
So: who, born within the last 200 years, will be remembered in the next 2000 years? Looking at the above, you either need to be the founder of western philosophy , a dominant religion’s leader , or an impactful conqueror.
If there was a new category for somebody to be remembered in 2000 years, then I would think that person would have to be inter-planetary. Somebody who played a large role in getting us off this rock and living on another planet.
Who qualifies then?
Einstein (1879)
Stephen Hawking (1942)
Maybe: Jeff Bezos (1964)*
Maybe: Elon Musk (1971)*
I would be interested in hearing some other opinions on this: who will be remembered in 4021? You can let me know who you think via email at mylesmarino1@gmail.com, or comment at the bottom of this post.
*contingent on if either of them lays the ultimate foundation for space travel
§Inspired by
§Glass House
I love this interview with Brunello Cucinelli. There are a ton of takeaways and quotes, but my favorite is this:
Mankind is becoming more ethical, but it is not happening because man has decided to become better than he was 100 years ago. It’s because we know we live in a glass house where everybody can see.
Now that data has become more accessible, we are finding out new things about each other(for better or worse)! The example Cucinelli brings up is how his father did not know if his employer had a villa on the sea- but today anybody can look at whoever house on Google Maps.
Cucinelli argues that this new age of information makes everybody act more authentic - because we implicitly know that if we are not authentic, our friends, family, and colleagues will find out!
The only thought I really have on this is that Cucinelli is probably right- but it is broader than just what our associates think of us. For example, scientists around the world can now collect, share, and collaborate on data on a scale that was impossible 100 years ago. The same thing goes for journalists, policy makers, and more. Living in a glass house has a lot of benefits!